Newman, California – California almond growers, already accustomed to navigating unpredictable weather and water supply issues, now face additional economic strain as the Trump administration imposes new tariffs on key trading partners. With more than 75% of the state’s almonds exported worldwide, experts warn that the ongoing trade disputes could significantly disrupt the industry and broader agricultural economy.
China has responded to Trump’s latest round of tariffs by increasing duties on U.S. almonds, adding to previous levies implemented during his first administration. This move raises the total tariff on California almonds in China to 35%, making them significantly more expensive compared to Australian almonds, which have gained market share as a result.
“If we start a trade war with India, the European Union, and parts of the Middle East, the almond industry in California is going to suffer dramatically,” said Colin Carter, an agricultural economist and professor emeritus at the University of California, Davis. “The price will fall even further, and you’ll see orchards being ripped out, farms being lost.”
The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is particularly concerning for almond growers, who invest in orchards that take years to produce and remain in operation for decades. Unlike annual crops that can be adjusted seasonally, almond farmers must make long-term business decisions without a clear outlook on future trade conditions.
Zachary Williams, sales director for Stewart & Jasper Orchards in Newman, California, noted that while Canadian buyers are currently stocking up on almonds ahead of potential tariff hikes, further trade restrictions—particularly from India—could dampen global demand.
“The uncertainty is probably more of a problem than the tariff itself,” Williams said. “Not knowing whether tariffs will be imposed or lifted makes it incredibly difficult to plan ahead.”
Almonds are California’s top agricultural export, generating $4.7 billion in export revenue in 2022, with India and the European Union among the largest buyers. While industry leaders emphasize the importance of diversifying global markets, the threat of expanding tariffs on key export destinations remains a pressing concern.
Meanwhile, many Central Valley farmers—who have broadly supported Trump’s policies on water access—now find themselves caught in the crosshairs of his escalating trade disputes. With China, Canada, and Mexico already facing new trade barriers, experts warn that further tariffs on additional markets could trigger lasting economic consequences for California’s almond industry.
